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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.